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Two scenarios for 2020 Vietnam economic growth

Update at: 10/01/2020 01:45:00

The National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) points out two scenarios for the Vietnam’s economy in 2020, according to which the growth rate will be either 7.01 or 6.76 percent in the new context of the world.

The two-scenario forecast was released by the NCIF at the symposium under the theme “Vietnam economic perspectives 2020” in Hanoi on January 10. 

At the symposium

In the first scenario, the 2020 GDP growth is projected to reach 7.01 percent, with inflation at 3.5 percent while exports of goods might reach more than $285 billion. NCIF Deputy General Director Dr. Dang Duc Anh said that this scenario may happen if the global economic growth increases slightly compared to 2019. Vietnam continues to take advantage of opportunities from the US-China trade war to increase the value of exports and attract foreign direct investment (FDI).

According to the second scenario, the growth will be 6.76 percent with inflation at 3.2 percent. This scenario is likely to happen if the global economic growth is lower than the first scenario. It is predicted that trade tensions continue to escalate between the United States and China. The domestic economy is projected to face some difficulties, such as negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, FDI and private sector development did not compensate for the decline in manufacturing sector.

Author: Hoan La
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