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Vietnam economy perspectives for 2021-2025: Opportunities and Challenges from New Generation Free Trade Agreements

Update at: 21/11/2019 02:08:00

The annual international conference on Prospect of Vietnam Economy was held on November 21, 2019 in Hanoi, Vietnam with the participation of hundreds of scholars from Vietnam, Ireland and other countries. 

The theme of the conference was “Vietnam Economy Perspectives for 2021-2025: Opportunities and Challenges from New Generation Free Trade Agreements”. It was organized by the National Center for socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCIF), Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam in cooperation with Irish Aid, Government of Ireland.

Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, General Director of NCIF made an opening speech.

Speaking at the opening of the conference, Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, General Director of NCIF said that the conference is a good opportunity for the two countries to exchange experiences, ways to strengthen the effectiveness of the cooperation between Vietnam and Ireland in promoting the development of analytical and foresight research in the field of economics.

Dr. Hong Minh said that Viet Nam has integrated more deeply and widely in the global economic, signed or joined talk on a large number of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. These trade agreements have shaped the present and future of Vietnamese economic development. Especially, the two new generation Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that Vietnam has signed recently, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the European Union – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), will have a significant impact on the Vietnamese economy in the coming years.

“In the framework of cooperation between NCIF and Trinity College Dublin with the support of Irish Aid, we have done research on economic outlooks, analysis and forecasts, including projections for the upcoming period of 2021-2025. We also assessed the potential impacts of new generation FTAs to manage and reduce any negative effects they may have on the Vietnamese economy”, Dr. Minh said.

Presenting on the topic of Vietnam economic in 2016-2020 and its prospective for 2021-2025, Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy General Director of NCIF said that Vietnam’s economy in the period of 2016-2020 has achieved many positive results but also contained many risks and limitations. Among the most notable achievements are maintaining high growth rates, stabilizing macroeconomics, and keeping inflation under control.

Dr. Duc Anh said that GDP growth rate in the period of 2021-2025 may reach to 7% on average, according to NCIF’s estimation based on the world economy and other factors affecting the Vietnamese economy. 

Prof. John FitzGerald gave a paper presentation at the conference.

As a scholar who has been working closely with NCIF’s researchers on building economic forecasting methods that fit Vietnam economy, Prof. John FitzGerald, Trinity College Dublin, Ireland presented a paper on modeling and forecasting the Vietnam economy at a national and a regional level. Prof. FitzGerald said that there are several aspects of the development of the Vietnam economy that reflect the Irish experience of development. He hoped that his experiences on undertaking research on a very different economy will benefit the NCIF researchers.

At the event, the participants discussed the following subjects: Vietnamese economic overview, development prospects, economic forecast scenarios, period of 2016-2020 and 2021-2025; the impact of new Free Trade Agreements, particularly EVFTA and CTPPP to Vietnam; and Modeling and forecasting the Vietnam economy at a national and a regional level.

The conference offered an opportunity to government officials, scientific researchers, and economic forecasting experts and scholars for a broad-based exchange on how to choose the proper economic forecasting models for the Vietnam economy.

Author: Hoan La
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