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Workshop “Vietnam Economic Prospects for 2017”

Update at: 16/01/2017 03:42:00

On 29th November, a workshop called “2017 Economic prospects and Investment Policies in Vietnam” in Ha Noiwas organized by Vietnamese National Centre for Socioeconomic Information and Forecast (NCIF) in coordination with Shinhan Financial Group (Shinhan Bank).

The workshop was held by Shinhan Bank, with the participations of General Director of NCIF, Ms. Mai Thi Thu; Deputy Director General of NCIF, Dr. Luong Van Khoi; Department Director of Analysis and Forecasts of NCIF, Dr Dang Duc Anh; General manager of Investment, Asset Strategy Department,Mr. Cho Jae Sung; Director of Foreign Investment Agency (FIA-MPI), Dr. Nguyen Noi; deputy and many other financial and economic researchers.

Dr. Luong Van Khoi ( NCIF) presented his presentation at the workshop. 

Dr. Luong Van Khoi addressed important points of World economy 2016 and prospects for 2017 as well as their impacts on Vietnam’s. He stated that in general, economy in 2016 is not stable, with oil price continued to fluctuate and Chinese economy showed some signs of decrease. There were two big events that effected the global economy in 2016: The UK left EU (Brexit) and US’s presidential election in November. These two events resulted inuncertainty to the world economy, nationalist, anti-globalization and protectionism.

Thus Vietnam’s economy was not an exception. The fact that China's economic is showing signs of decrease will affect the world oil prices and its demand, results in exports and imports decrease. There would be negative impact to the world economy, including Vietnam, Korea and Africa...

For the economic prospects in Vietnam, Dr. Khoi emphasized that Vietnam economy might confront three main difficulties within the three main economic sectors: (i) Agriculture, forestry and fishery might strongly be affected due to negative impact of climate change. (ii) Industry and construction may encounter challenges in production and investment (iii) Serviceindustry willsuffer due to the declining in consumption and there hasn’t been any sign of recovery.

With Vietnam economy outlook in 2017, NCIF has brought out a baseline scenario: The economy will stabilize and continue its growing momentum, domestic investment efficiency will be improved. State investment will increase by 6%. There are not that many changes in structure, size, efficiency but exports and investment will be enhanced by utilizing advantages of integration process. Therefore, GDP growth rate is expected to be at 6.44%, CPI at 5% in 2017.

Mr. Cho Jae Sung (Shinhan Bank) also mentioned about the world economic prospects which including: the US economic prospects and the dollar; China risks; European economic prospects; prospects for world oil price and gold price; exchange rate.

Referring to the results of the US presidential election, Mr. Cho Jae Sungbelievedcontroversial opinions of the President-elect Donald Trump may cause some chaos for the US economy in 2017. Mr. Trump’s strategy is to try and maintain the value of thedollar and toboost exports.

Referring to the main risks of China, Mr. Cho agreed that the high rate of corporate debt (170% of GDP) is the main problem forChinese economy. He also mentionedaboutthe real estate bubble, which will be improved by a strategy called Two – Track. This specific strategy has been applied with special regulations for therapidlydevelopingreal estate region and promoting real estate in the suburbs.

World oil price might increase due to the fact that the dollar is restricted and there are agreement of cutting down on oil production in certain related countries. However, it is unlikely to reach the record highest price because of the largest remaining oil inventories in the history as well as an increase in supply once the price is stabilize.

Gold price has a tendency todecrease due to the sudden increase of interest rate of Treasure Bonds and the current trend of US dollar. 

Shinhan Group is in cooperation with NCIF to forecast and outline some difficulties foreconomic growth and recommend reasonable strategy to supportsustainable, inclusive economic growth in Vietnam.

Author: BBT
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