Analysis and Forecast

2017 European economic prospect

Update at: 28/12/2016 09:33:00

After a year of variations in both Economy and Politic, the general prospect of European area in 2017 is expected to have a positive step to recover from latest crisis, but it also depends on numerous aspects.

In Economy aspect, the prospect of European economic area in 2017 is forecasted to keep recovering in slow pace. According to Eurostat’s statistics, the potential growth is still in low level caused by the result of the latest crisis namely Brexit[1] (the UK and EU’s economies has been affected by Brexit, the world economic growth rate will be lower in 2016 at 3.0 percent, then it may increase to 3.3 percent in 2017), these threats come from unstable politics, population aging and the decrease labor effectiveness and so on. Thus, the European economic area’s development forecasted is 1,2 percent 2017 based on IMF’s Report (10/2016a). This report also gives information about Germany’s economy with the growth rate of 1,4 percent in 2017. Besides, France is going to have a remarkable increase compared to it in 2016 with the developed economic indicator in 2017 is 1,3 percent, the same growth rate is lower in Italia with 0,9 percent in 2017. However, in Spain, this report indicates that in the next two years, they are going to make an incredible step in economic development such as 3,1 percent in the end of 2016 and 2,2 percent for entire year of 2017. In Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies of European area, it is predicted that these countries may achieve 3,1 percent in economic growth in 2017, nonetheless, the gross commodity exportation from these countries, apparently, has a breakthrough in this period.

The world’s economic improvement is contributed by expansionary monetary policies, the decrease oil price and fiscal supplies. Nevertheless, the negative effects were created by the curtailment in connection with Russia, unstable politics (in Italia, France, Germany and Netherland), the unpredictable variation of financial market and the expansion of doctrine against the globalization in over European area.

In Politic aspect, the majority of advanced economic countries are threatening with their own destabilization. Italia is one of these countries having a soft economy in this period. Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, have made a resignation for a day following his pledge that he would have terminated playing his role in Italian political construction if the public vote campaign had not agreed to remove senate’s power in running policies. According to the former Italian prime minister, removing senate’s power is completely meaningful in process of reconstruction Italian economy in the case of the Department of Banking and Finance face up with a large number of ricks in crisis. Even skipping the impact of the result on Italian economy in the year of 2017, the result of public vote campaign shows a serious issue that Italian is getting loss their faith in government and several experts who argue that the Minister after Matteo Renzi is going to have to make a close combination with Italia’s senate to deal with this complex issues.

 Being in the same position with Italia, these countries such as France, Germany, Netherland have their own challenges. France are today in danger of terrorism and the expansion of doctrine against the globalization. The presidential election campaign which is taking place in the next autumn, is witnessing the a significantly growth of supportive proportion with the nominator, Le Phen, one of the people who is known for encouraging US’s president elected Donal Trump, Brexit in particular and doctrine against the globalization in general. In Netherland, there are a wide number of public opinions say that they desire a public vote campaign to make decision whether exit from European economic group in beginning of 2017. In Germany, Prime minister – Angela Merkel is dealing with the prestigious depression by creating migrant crisis in this country.

In conclusion, the background of European economic area in 2017 is in the progress of recovering from latest crisis. Thus, to obtain the goal, these governments need to coordinate together in running economy as closely as possible.

 

[1] The exit from European economic group of England after a public vote campaign (23/6/2016)

Source:NCIF
Author: Ta Hoang Anh (Department of World Economy)
  Email    In

Comment

 
Confirm code:
Input confirm code:
 

Search

Advance Search  

Related News

Total number of visitors : 1097203